Hold onto
your seats, because one year from today the United States of America will go to
the polls and elect their 45th President, and my prediction is that during
the next twelve months, things are going to get rather messy. Who eventually
wins the election on November 8th 2016 depends entirely upon which
candidate each of the two main political parties nominate – Democratic Party
and Republican Party – and just like with the British electoral system, it’s
not simply a question of which candidate receives the most votes on Election
Day.
In simple terms, on November 8th 2016 voters in each State will cast a ballot for their preferred candidate, and the candidate who receives the most votes will gain the support of that state’s “Electors”. At some time in December 2016, the 538 “Electors” who together form the “Electoral College”, will vote for their State’s candidate and the first candidate to receive 270 Electoral College Votes will become the 45th President of the United States of America. Simple?
In simple terms, on November 8th 2016 voters in each State will cast a ballot for their preferred candidate, and the candidate who receives the most votes will gain the support of that state’s “Electors”. At some time in December 2016, the 538 “Electors” who together form the “Electoral College”, will vote for their State’s candidate and the first candidate to receive 270 Electoral College Votes will become the 45th President of the United States of America. Simple?
The serious
candidates, as I see it, are Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders for the
Democratic Party, and for the Republican Party, which has a much deeper field,
I suspect that Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Donald Trump will be some way ahead of
the other runners. By the end of July 2016, through a process of Primary
Elections held in each State and Territory, each Party will have nominated a
candidate who’ll appear on the November 8th presidential ballot
papers.
Had I a
vote in this election, my choice would be Bernie Sanders, but I don’t have a
vote and I feel that in a close contest, Hillary Clinton will scrape through as
the Democratic Party’s nominee. For the Republican Party, I have a hunch that
it will come down to a tight and bitter battle between Ted Cruz and Donald
Trump and whichever one of them wins, in exchange for the transfer of voter
support at the Republican National Convention, they’ll select Marco Rubio to
run as their Vice President.
In this
election more than any other, choosing the eventual winner this early would be
a fool’s game, but here goes nothing:
Hillary Clinton
v Ted Cruz = President Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
v Ted Cruz = President Bernie Sanders
Hillary
Clinton v Donald Trump = President Donald Trump
Bernie
Sanders v Donald Trump = President Bernie Sanders
Of course,
this is based on nothing more scientific than my own personal feelings and a
little research into each of the candidates and their assumed positions on future policy.
I see Ted Cruz as the least likable candidate, very closely followed by Hillary
Clinton. Donald Trump is as yet an unknown quantity, but as the maverick candidate, he must be taken seriously. And, as for Bernie Sanders, well, beyond those who appear to unquestioningly ‘love’ only
Trump, Cruz, Clinton or Wall Street, he appears to enjoy almost universal approval, and the value of a trustworthy politician in dangerous times such as these, ought not to be underestimated.
[EDIT: In the early hours of 9th November 2016, Hillary R. Clinton, who on the morning of the election had been given a 98.10% chance of winning the Electoral College by a landslide margin, conceded the election .... making Donald J. Trump, President-Elect of the United States of America.]
